“The Bitcoin Hypothesis”

TDLR – You are not late! 20k invested today will be close to 50x or 1mio at retirement. (Horizon 25years)

Introduction

This is my personal hypothesis about Bitcoin and how it can be used for retirement.

Bitcoin is the ultimate property because it embodies the purest form of ownership. As Michael Saylor often emphasizes, Bitcoin is the first digital asset that is absolutely scarce, infinitely portable, and immune to confiscation or degradation over time. Unlike physical property, such as real estate or gold, which are constrained by location, maintenance, and physical vulnerabilities, Bitcoin transcends these limitations by existing entirely in the digital realm. It requires no ongoing maintenance costs.

With Bitcoin, you can own and transfer wealth across the globe in minutes, secured by an immutable blockchain that operates independently of governments, banks, or intermediaries. Its programmability allows for precision ownership down to the smallest fraction, while its decentralized network ensures that no single entity can control or manipulate it.

The S&P 500 inherently mirrors the expansion of the U.S. monetary supply, reflecting the inflationary pressures of fiat currency. It is a good vehicle for preserving value; in contrast, Bitcoin serves as a true store of value that is immune to inflation due to its fixed supply and decentralized nature.

Likelihood of Bitcoin Going to Zero: Adoption by Banks and Governments

The likelihood of Bitcoin going to zero is increasingly improbable due to the growing adoption by large financial institutions and governments. In recent years, major banks like JPMorgan, Fidelity, and Goldman Sachs have integrated Bitcoin into their offerings, providing services such as Bitcoin custody, trading, and investment products. These developments indicate that Bitcoin is no longer viewed as a fringe asset but as a legitimate part of the global financial system.

Moreover, governments are beginning to recognize Bitcoin’s utility. For example, El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, and countries like Singapore and Switzerland have created regulatory frameworks to encourage its use and innovation. Even in regions with more restrictive stances, Bitcoin is being studied as a potential tool for financial inclusion and cross-border remittances.

This institutional and governmental adoption creates a robust safety net of demand and legitimacy, making it highly unlikely for Bitcoin to lose all value. As banks and governments invest in infrastructure to support Bitcoin, their involvement reinforces its status as a durable, globally relevant asset.

Bitcoin’s Historical and Expected Growth

Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited exponential growth. In more recent times, it has maintained an annual growth rate between 50% and 70%, depending on the calculation method. While we expect this growth rate to decelerate over time, it is unlikely to slow to the levels typically seen in the stock market, primarily because Bitcoin is inherently non-inflationary. Since the last halving, its inflation rate has dropped below 1% annually.

Although the future is unpredictable, Bitcoin’s annual growth is anticipated to hover around 50% in the near term and gradually decline to approximately 10% by 2050. While short-term price volatility is inevitable, the long-term outlook suggests consistent and significant growth.

Conclusion

You’re not too late to invest in Bitcoin. Today, it has evolved into a more stable and lower-risk asset compared to its early years, with the potential to significantly boost your retirement savings—especially within the Swiss system. One of the unique advantages in Switzerland is the absence of private capital gains tax, making privately held Bitcoin an inherently tax-advantaged investment. The only step is deciding to invest.

So, is now the right time? Absolutely. At current price levels, Bitcoin offers a compelling opportunity. For example, a 20,000 CHF investment today could grow to nearly 1 million CHF in 25 years. Even if my estimates are overly optimistic and the growth is only 10x, it would still significantly outperform the historical returns of the S&P 500.

My approach? Accumulate as much Bitcoin as possible while the price remains low.